Research and Analytics
Research and Analytics
Rising world food prices for producers are making headlines and causing concerns among the public. The most recent data show a moderation in consumer food price inflation globally, but as we explain below, that could change in the coming months. This would only add to the high prices that consumers in many countries already lived through last year.
Imagine you’re a policymaker in sub-Saharan Africa. You’ve been charged with lifting your country out of the worst health crisis in living memory, and nobody around you knows when it will end—the second wave that gripped the region earlier in the year has eased, but many countries are nonetheless bracing for further waves as winter approaches.
One piece of good news is that a global recovery is well underway. Key economies are rebounding sharply, global trade has improved, commodity prices are higher, and investment flows have resumed.
The bad news is that, for sub-Saharan Africa, at least, near-term growth prospects are somewhat more subdued. And as long as widespread vaccination remains out of reach, you will face the unenviable task of trying to boost your economy while simultaneously dealing with repeated COVID-19 outbreaks as they arise.
While it’s had some ups and downs, the stock market has soared to historic heights in recent years. For many, that’s great news: it’s a sign that the economy and their retirement accounts are doing really well. For Jan Eeckhout, however, the booming stock market is a sign that there’s something deeply wrong with the economy.
Sure, the economist says, he has a retirement account with stocks, and he personally benefits from the ongoing bonanza on stock exchanges. But the rocket ride of the stock market is powered by the exploding profits of increasingly powerful corporations. Their increasingly ridiculous profits, he says, are eating the income of the vast bulk of workers and hurting the overall economy. That notion is the central thesis of his forthcoming book, The Profit Paradox: How Thriving Firms Threaten the Future of Work.
President Biden has now been in office for 100 days. Okay, technically 104 days. In that time, presidential tweets have gotten way more boring, but the federal government’s plans to intervene in the economy have gotten way more interesting.
In his joint address to Congress last week, Biden called for a multitrillion-dollar agenda that could fundamentally transform the economy. And it now seems like the man conservatives called “Sleepy Joe” has been pounding Red Bulls and is ready to tax and spend like no president in generations.
Here’s a brief overview of some of President Biden’s biggest economic initiatives.
At the moment, there seems to be a consensus among intellectuals and institutional bodies like the IMF and the World Bank on the potential positive impact of the removal of subsidy on the economy. Their arguments are pretty broad and far-reaching. They submit that subsidy payment continues to widen the inequality gap in the country since petroleum subsidy is an implicit subsidy (financing consumption), and the wealthy who consume more than the poor citizens whom the government seeks to protect from the high fuel price also benefit from the regulated price. At the same time, their taxes have not increased commensurately.
The rise in long-term US interest rates has become a focus of global macro-financial concerns. The nominal yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has increased about 70 basis points since the beginning of the year. This reflects in part an improving US economic outlook amid strong fiscal support and the accelerating recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. So an increase would be expected. But other factors like investors’ concerns about the fiscal position and uncertainty about the economic and policy outlook may also be playing a role and help explain the rapid increase early in the year.
After ending last year with unexpectedly strong vaccine success and hope that the pandemic and economic distress it caused would recede, we woke up to the reality of new virus variants and the unpredictable, winding road that it can lead the world down.
Lockdowns, working from home, and physical distancing caused people to spend larger shares of their household budgets on food and housing, while fewer people bought nonessentials, like airline tickets and clothing. And with incomes down as millions have lost their jobs, spending on nonessential items will likely remain depressed.
nequality in both advanced economies and emerging markets has been on the rise in recent decades. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated and raised awareness of disparities between the rich and poor.
With 84% of Nigeria’s export (as at Q2’2020) as oil products, we reiterate that Nigeria does not really have an import problem. Nigeria has an export problem and until that problem is solved, average Nigerians will always suffer higher commodity prices due to the demand management strategy of the CBN anytime external shocks occur in the oil market.
