Research and Analytics
Research and Analytics
Report Summary Nigeria’s widening gap between revenue and spending pushed the government to borrow more and, when other sources fell short, turn to CBN financing through Ways and Means. The balance ballooned from ₦856.3 billion in 2015 to ₦23.5 trillion by 2022, driven by falling oil revenue, fiscal deficits, COVID-19 and rising subsidy costs. In […]
Nigeria is gradually entering another election cycle, and with it comes a familiar question for investors: how do elections affect inflation and equity market performance? Conventional wisdom often assumes that election periods lead to higher inflation and weaker equity markets due to fiscal spending and heightened uncertainty. However, Nigeria’s experience over the past decade suggests […]
The recent rise in NNPC remittances marks a positive development for Nigeria’s revenue profile. With payments made in U.S. dollars, these inflows have also supported growth in foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves increased from US$37.9 billion at the end of April to more than US$42 billion at the end of September. This increase has also supported positive domestic and foreign sentiment, with the net impact being an appreciation of the currency to below NGN1,500/USD since 15 September.
Following the recent wave of reform-led sentiment upgrades and positive outlook revisions on Nigeria’s economy by leading global institutions and credit rating agencies, Nigerian Eurobonds have seen a notable rebound in investor interest. This renewed momentum is particularly visible on the short end of the curve, where market participants are finding favorable entry points supported […]
The rapid growth and innovation within the Nigerian Fintech industry have transformed the financial landscape and presented unique and complex tax challenges. As Fintech companies continue to disrupt traditional financial services and expand their operations, navigating the evolving taxation landscape has become critical. The growth and competition within the payment gateway industry, as exemplified by companies like Flutterwave, Paystack, Remita, Interswitch, and others, are truly remarkable to witness. As reported by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), E-payment transactions in 2022 reached an impressive volume of 22 billion. At the same time, data from the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement Systems (NIBSS) shows that electronic transactions amounting to ₦38.9 trillion were conducted through the NIBSS Instant Payment platform (NIP) as of November 2022 (+50.2% vs November 2021: ₦25.9 trillion). This is a testament to the robust expansion of the Fintech sector in Nigeria, attracting policymakers in terms of supporting their growth and boosting tax collections from the sector. We will delve into the problems and obstacles at hand, while also exploring potential solutions for the way forward.
In Q4-2022, Nigeria’s external position improved, as the current account returned to a surplus position, primarily propelled by a higher trade balance surplus and reduced shortfalls in the services and primary income accounts. Specifically, the current account balance attained a surplus of $2.3 billion, a significant turnaround from the $2.1 billion deficit recorded in Q3-2022.
In the second part of two articles, Abdulmajid discusses the global effects of aggressive monetary policy, in Africa, the EU, and the United States. In addition, He highlights a few analyst recommendations and the potential repercussions of those recommendations.
The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States of America, also referred to as “The Federal Reserve” or “The Fed” or “The U.S. Fed,” has an almost monopolistic influence on the functioning and operation of global economies. Due to the U.S. dollar’s status as the World Reserve Currency (WRC) and the currency of choice (or circumstance) for international trade and commerce. The Federal Reserve, which is the apex bank of the world’s largest economy, serves almost as the de facto central bank for the rest of the world, and as such, decisions made within its walls ripple through the halls of other central banks and international/continental financial institutions.
In the first of two pieces on this subject, I will make an effort to present a clear and short explanation of what monetary policy is, how the Federal Reserve has worked to rein in inflation in a manner that is consistent with the objectives that it has articulated, and how inflation is proving to be structural in the economies of the United States and the rest of the world.
Prior to its failure, FRB was a California-based lender that served wealthy Americans with low-rate mortgages in exchange for cash, much as SVB, which catered to technology firms. However, things changed when the Federal Reserve (the Fed), started raising the benchmark interest rate in 2022 in response to escalating inflationary pressures in the world’s largest economy. Notably, the Fed increased the key policy rate by a cumulative 425bps in 2022, with rates now at their highest level since 2008. FRB’s assets suffered losses as a result, as did customer deposits, and the bank’s reputation was damaged.
Nigeria’s population exploded from 60 million at independence – 1960, to 150m in 2010. Currently, Nigeria has a population of 206 million, growing at a 2.67% annual CAGR. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s food production index (normalized to 100), currently at 107, is a 2.10% annual CAGR between 2007 and 2020.
