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Managing Divergent Recoveries
It is one year into the COVID-19 pandemic and the global community still confronts extreme social and economic strain as the human toll rises and millions remain unemployed. Yet, even with high uncertainty…
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How Rising Interest Rates Could Affect Emerging Markets
Emerging and developing economies are viewing rising interest rates with trepidation. Most of them are facing a slower economic recovery than advanced economies because of longer waits for vaccines and limited space for…
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Slow-Healing Scars: The Pandemic’s Legacy
Recessions wreak havoc and the damage is often long-lived. Businesses shut down, investment spending is cut, and people out of work can lose skills and motivation as the months stretch on. But the…
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A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge
In just three months since we released our last forecast in October, recorded COVID-19 deaths have doubled to over 2 million, as new waves have lifted infections past previous peaks in many countries.…
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Financial Perils in Check for Now, Eyes Turn to Risk of Market Correction
Prices for stocks, corporate bonds, and other risk assets have risen higher on the news of vaccine rollouts. Financial markets have shrugged off rising COVID-19 cases, betting that continued policy support will offset…
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What 1919 Teaches Us About Pent-Up Demand
1918 should have been a great year for baseball. A young left-handed pitcher named Babe Ruth began the year by pitching an opening-day victory for the Boston Red Sox. Shortly after, Ruth lobbied…
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How the Rich Get Richer
A paper co-authored this year by economists from the IMF and other institutions confirms that wealthier people are more likely to earn higher returns on their investments. It also shows that the children…
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Time is Ripe for Innovation in the World of Sovereign Debt Restructuring
When corporations have too much debt and need to restructure it, creditors often end up exchanging bonds or loans for stocks. They trade the guaranteed payout of a fixed-income investment for an equity…
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Continued Strong Policy Action to Combat Uncertainty
As G20 leaders meet virtually this week, the global economy faces a critical juncture. Countries have started to climb back from the depths of the COVID-19 crisis. But the resurgence in infections in…
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Bridging the Digital Divide to Scale Up the COVID-19 Recovery
Digitalization has in the past few years enabled developing countries, in particular, to leapfrog on financial inclusion. Countries like Kenya, Ghana, Rwanda and Tanzania have made great advances in connecting their citizens to…
