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The Behavioral Economics Manifesto Gets Revised
“The basics of behavioral economics are really sound because they’re kind of obvious,” Thaler says. It’s obvious, he says, that people aren’t perfectly rational. It’s obvious that they suffer from self-control problems and…
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How “Chaos” In the Shipping Industry Is Choking The Economy
On both land and at sea, the entire supply chain is struggling to keep up. In the Pacific Northwest, it’s become such a clusterfest that the U.S. Coast Guard has been redirecting boats…
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US Dollar Share of Global Foreign Exchange Reserves Drops to 25-Year Low
The share of US dollar reserves held by central banks fell to 59 percent—its lowest level in 25 years—during the fourth quarter of 2020, according to the IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange…
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The Great Divergence: A Fork in the Road for the Global Economy
As our note to the G20 meeting points out, there is a major risk that as advanced economies and a few emerging markets recover faster, most developing countries will languish for years to…
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Structural Factors and Central Bank Credibility Limit Inflation Risks
After ending last year with unexpectedly strong vaccine success and hope that the pandemic and economic distress it caused would recede, we woke up to the reality of new virus variants and the…
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When it Comes to Services vs. Manufacturing, Words Matter
Efforts to revive national manufacturing sectors get a lot of airtime. After all, the sector propelled many East and South-East Asian economies—the so-called “East Asia Miracle”—and was a gateway to the middle class…
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Is It Time To Tax Stock Trading?
In the economist's utopian vision of the stock market, clearheaded investors diligently evaluate companies and invest only in the ones they expect to grow and thrive. In the process, investors direct resources where…
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How Poverty Makes Workers Less Productive
Obviously, giving more money to people without much money helps them with money problems. But this study adds to a growing body of research that says that money really does help workers earn…
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A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge
In just three months since we released our last forecast in October, recorded COVID-19 deaths have doubled to over 2 million, as new waves have lifted infections past previous peaks in many countries.…
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What the Continued Global Uncertainty Means for You,
Global uncertainty reached unprecedented levels at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and remains elevated. The World Uncertainty Index—a quarterly measure of global economic and policy uncertainty covering 143 countries—shows that although uncertainty…
