Research and Analytics
Research and Analytics
Faced with an unprecedented shock of collapsing global demand and commodity prices, capital outflows, major supply chain disruptions and a generalized drop in global trade, many emerging markets and developing economies’ (EMDEs) currencies have weakened sharply. Will these currency movements support the recovery of these economies?
China’s latest quarterly growth rate shows that the country has averted a recession in the first half of the year as real GDP growth rate printed at +3.2% in Q2’20 compared to -6.8% recorded in Q1’20. China looks to be recovering in our view and in line with the IMF projection, the country will not […]
When G20 finance ministers and central bank governors last met in April, the world was in the midst of the Great Lockdown forced by the outbreak of COVID-19. As they meet virtually this week, many countries are gradually reopening, even as the pandemic remains with us. Clearly, we have entered a new phase of the crisis—one that will require further policy agility and action to secure a durable and shared recovery.
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has already prompted an unprecedented fiscal policy response of close to $11 trillion worldwide. But with confirmed cases and fatalities still rising fast, policymakers will have to keep the public health response their No. 1 priority while retaining supportive and flexible fiscal policies and preparing for transformational economic change.
Inflation rate in Venezuela has skyrocketed, moving an average figure of 21.07% in 2012 to as high as 65,374.08% in 2018 before moderating to c.15,000% in 2020. Hence, the venezuelan Bolivar has lost its value, causing more money to chase fewer goods – imagining buying a roll of toilet paper with 2.6 million Venezuelan Bolivars in 2018.
The COVID-19 pandemic could be a game changer for digital financial services. Low income households and small firms can benefit greatly from advances in mobile money, fintech services and online banking. Financial inclusion as a result of digital financial services can also boost economic growth. While the pandemic is set to increase use of these services, it has also posed challenges for the growth of the industry’s smaller players and highlighted unequal access to digital infrastructure. Several actions will need to be taken to ensure maximum inclusion going forward.
Compared to the April World Economic Outlook forecast, the IMF now projects a deeper recession in 2020 and a slower recovery in 2021. Global output is projected to decline by -4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below our April forecast, followed by a partial recovery, with growth at 5.4 percent in 2021.
The Great Lockdown is expected to play out in three phases, first as countries enter the lockdown, then as they exit, and finally as they escape the lockdown when there is a medical solution to the pandemic. Many countries are now in the second phase, as they reopen, with early signs of recovery, but risks of second waves of infections and re-imposition of lockdowns. Surveying the economic landscape, the sheer scale and severity of the Global Lockdown are striking.
By Kristalina Georgieva The COVID-19 crisis is inflicting the most pain on those who are already most vulnerable. This calamity could lead to a significant rise in income inequality. And it could jeopardize development gains, from educational attainment to poverty reduction. New estimates suggest that up to 100 million people worldwide could be pushed into extreme poverty, […]
By Ruchir Agarwal and Signe Krogstrup, IMF Blog / Image Credit: IMF Many central banks reduced policy interest rates to zero during the global financial crisis to boost growth. Ten years later, interest rates remain low in most countries. While the global economy has been recovering, future downturns are inevitable. Severe recessions have historically required 3–6 percentage points cut […]
![[INFOGRAPHICS] China’s Quarterly Growth Rate Overtime](https://giftedanalysts.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/China-growth-02-1-scaled.jpg)
