Slow-Healing Scars: The Pandemic’s Legacy

Recessions wreak havoc and the damage is often long-lived. Businesses shut down, investment spending is cut, and people out of work can lose skills and motivation as the months stretch on. But the recession brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic is no ordinary recession. Compared to previous global crises, the contraction was sudden and deep—using quarterly data, global output declined about three times as much as in the global financial crisis, in half the time.

COVID’s Impact in Real Time: Finding Balance Amid the Crisis

The IMF analyzed the economic effects of lockdowns and voluntary social distancing using two high-frequency proxies for economic activity: mobility data from Google and job openings posted on the website Indeed. As illustrated in the top chart below, over the entire sample of 128 countries used in the analysis, lockdowns and voluntary social distancing contributed equally to the drop in mobility during the first 3 months of a country’s epidemic.

[Archive] From Recession to Growth: The Story Of Nigeria’s Recovery from the 2016 Economic Recession

Being a Paper presented by Godwin I. Emefiele, Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria at the Special Convocation of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, on Friday, May 17, 2019 at the Princess Alexandra Auditorium, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State

How The Pandemic Is Making The Gender Pay Gap Worse

A new study finds that this recession is hitting women harder. Between February and April 2020, male unemployment increased 9.9 percent; female unemployment increased 12.8 percent. The pandemic has ravaged in-person service jobs — at restaurants, hotels, pilates studios, retail outlets, and so on — which are disproportionately done by women.

Unemployment in Today’s Recession Compared to the Global Financial Crisis

There has been much discussion in recent months about how workers who transitioned to working from home—and those who were deemed “essential”—are less affected by the layoffs and job losses brought on by lockdowns than are workers in “social” jobs that require closer human interaction, like restaurant workers.

[INFOGRAPHICS] China’s Quarterly Growth Rate Overtime

China’s latest quarterly growth rate shows that the country has averted a recession in the first half of the year as real GDP growth rate printed at +3.2% in Q2’20 compared to -6.8% recorded in Q1’20. China looks to be recovering in our view and in line with the IMF projection, the country will not […]

What Beer Sales Tell us about the Recession

Craft beer sales are surging at stores, but craft breweries are still struggling. Cheap beer is surging, but it’s still losing market share. That’s because the economics of the beer business are complicated. (And that’s before you start drinking). But the beer business can tell us a lot about the last two recessions.

Reopening from the Great Lockdown: Uneven and Uncertain Recovery

Compared to the April World Economic Outlook forecast, the IMF now projects a deeper recession in 2020 and a slower recovery in 2021. Global output is projected to decline by -4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below our April forecast, followed by a partial recovery, with growth at 5.4 percent in 2021.

Global economy on a Tripod: Deflation, Inflation and Recession in 2020

From economic theories, one characteristics of a recession is that price level of goods and services will become low. If this should go by and considering that economic theories are in favour of low inflation to boost economic growth, then the low prices of goods and services is meant to be a factor that will lift economies from contraction to boom. However, this is not always the case especially for countries experiencing deflation.

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