Interest Rate Archives - Gifted Analysts

Understanding the Rise in US Long-Term Rates

By Okeowo EbenezerPosted on April 23, 2021Posted in Africa & World EconomyTagged Bond, COVID-19, Fiscal Policy, GDP, Inflation, Interest Rate, Monetary PolicyNo Comments

The rise in long-term US interest rates has become a focus of global macro-financial concerns. The nominal yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has increased about 70 basis points since the beginning of the year. This reflects in part an improving US economic outlook amid strong fiscal support and the accelerating recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. So an increase would be expected. But other factors like investors’ concerns about the fiscal position and uncertainty about the economic and policy outlook may also be playing a role and help explain the rapid increase early in the year.

A Future with High Public Debt: Low-for-Long Is Not Low Forever

By Aminu MusaPosted on April 20, 2021Posted in Africa & World EconomyTagged COVID-19, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rate, Monetary Policy, Public DebtNo Comments

Many countries are experiencing a combination of high public debt and low interest rates. This was already the case in advanced economies even prior to the pandemic but has become even starker in its aftermath. A growing number of emerging market and developing economies are likewise enjoying a period of negative real rates—the interest rate minus inflation—on government debt. The IMF has called on countries to spend as much as they can to protect the vulnerable and limit long-lasting damage to economies, stressing the need for spending to be well targeted. This is especially critical in emerging market and developing economies, which face tighter constraints and associated fiscal risks, where greater prioritization of spending is of the essence.

How Rising Interest Rates Could Affect Emerging Markets

By Aminu MusaPosted on April 5, 2021Posted in Africa & World EconomyTagged Advanced Economies, COVID-19, developing economies, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Stimulus, Interest Rate, Vaccine developmentNo Comments

Emerging and developing economies are viewing rising interest rates with trepidation. Most of them are facing a slower economic recovery than advanced economies because of longer waits for vaccines and limited space for their own fiscal stimulus. Now, capital inflows to emerging markets have shown signs of drying up. The fear is of a repeat of the “taper tantrum” episode of 2013, when indications of an earlier-than-expected tapering of US bond purchases caused a rush of capital outflows from emerging markets.

What to do When Low-for-Long Interest Rates are Lower and for Longer

By Okeowo EbenezerPosted on December 14, 2020Posted in AgenciesTagged Central Banks, Fiscal Stimulus, Interest Rate, Monetary stimulus, PandemicNo Comments

Central banks have played a pivotal role in easing financial conditions in response to the COVID-19 shock, and helped avert a catastrophic downturn. However, their work is far from done. Yet more monetary stimulus will be needed to support economic recovery, and central banks are implementing innovative new strategies to provide it.

Policy Trilemma and Interest Rate Behaviour in Nigeria

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on November 18, 2020Posted in EconomyTagged cbn, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Monetary Policy TrilemmaNo Comments

Policy makers face trade-off in dealing with exchange rate management, monetary independence and concerns about capital mobility simultaneously. This
study empirically examines the effects of Nigeria’s trilemma policy path on
interest rate using data spanning from 1997:Q1 to 2017:Q3. It equally incorporates the role of external reserves in buffering these effects.

Continuous Increase in Inflation Rate: What will the CBN Do?

By Sheriffdeen AdeotiPosted on June 18, 2020Posted in EconomyTagged cbn, COVID-19, Inflation, Interest Rate, MPR, NBSNo Comments

Nigeria’s Headline inflation increased by 12.4% (year-on-year) in May 2020, 6bps (0.06%) higher than the rate recorded in the previous month (12.34%), marking a ninth consecutive month of increase in inflation since August 2019 (11.02%) and a 25-month high of April 2018 (12.48%). The 12.4% inflation rate means that on the average, if a goods cost NGN100 in May 2019, 12 months ago, the consumer will actually pay NGN112.4 for the same commodity in May 2020.

Cashing In: How to Make Negative Interest Rates Work

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on May 16, 2020Posted in ArticlesTagged Cash, Coronavirus, COVID-19, IMF, Interest Rate, NegativeNo Comments

By Ruchir Agarwal and Signe Krogstrup, IMF Blog / Image Credit: IMF Many central banks reduced policy interest rates to zero during the global financial crisis to boost growth. Ten years later, interest rates remain low in most countries. While the global economy has been recovering, future downturns are inevitable. Severe recessions have historically required 3–6 percentage points cut […]

Data on Interest Rates in Nigeria (1981-2018)

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on April 16, 2020Posted in DataTagged data, Interest Rate, Monetary Policy Rate, Prime Lending Rate, Savings RateNo Comments

The file attached contains data on Prime Lending Rate (PLR), Savings Rate (SR) and Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) in Nigeria from 1981 to 2018. […]

Download Data on Impact of Monetary Policy on Agricultural Financing

By Akinyemi AfolabiPosted on January 15, 2020Posted in Analytics, DataTagged ACGSF, Agricultural Finance, Agriculture, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, Monetary PolicyNo Comments

The excel file below contains time series data on impact of monetary policy on agricultural financing from 1981 to 2017. Data on Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund was used to measure agricultural financing while interest rate, inflation rate, banking sector credit to the economy, exchange rate and broad money supply were used as proxy for […]

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