Africa & World Economy
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Understanding the Rise in US Long-Term Rates
The rise in long-term US interest rates has become a focus of global macro-financial concerns. The nominal yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has increased about 70 basis points since the beginning of…
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A Future with High Public Debt: Low-for-Long Is Not Low Forever
Many countries are experiencing a combination of high public debt and low interest rates. This was already the case in advanced economies even prior to the pandemic but has become even starker in…
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Managing Divergent Recoveries
It is one year into the COVID-19 pandemic and the global community still confronts extreme social and economic strain as the human toll rises and millions remain unemployed. Yet, even with high uncertainty…
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How Rising Interest Rates Could Affect Emerging Markets
Emerging and developing economies are viewing rising interest rates with trepidation. Most of them are facing a slower economic recovery than advanced economies because of longer waits for vaccines and limited space for…
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Slow-Healing Scars: The Pandemic’s Legacy
Recessions wreak havoc and the damage is often long-lived. Businesses shut down, investment spending is cut, and people out of work can lose skills and motivation as the months stretch on. But the…
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The Great Divergence: A Fork in the Road for the Global Economy
As our note to the G20 meeting points out, there is a major risk that as advanced economies and a few emerging markets recover faster, most developing countries will languish for years to…
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Structural Factors and Central Bank Credibility Limit Inflation Risks
After ending last year with unexpectedly strong vaccine success and hope that the pandemic and economic distress it caused would recede, we woke up to the reality of new virus variants and the…
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When it Comes to Services vs. Manufacturing, Words Matter
Efforts to revive national manufacturing sectors get a lot of airtime. After all, the sector propelled many East and South-East Asian economies—the so-called “East Asia Miracle”—and was a gateway to the middle class…
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Is It Time To Tax Stock Trading?
In the economist's utopian vision of the stock market, clearheaded investors diligently evaluate companies and invest only in the ones they expect to grow and thrive. In the process, investors direct resources where…
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A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge
In just three months since we released our last forecast in October, recorded COVID-19 deaths have doubled to over 2 million, as new waves have lifted infections past previous peaks in many countries.…
