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Research and Analytics

Vaccines

Drawing Further Apart: Widening Gaps in the Global Recovery

By Abdulazeez KurangaPosted on Posted in Africa & World EconomyTagged , , , , , , , No Comments on Drawing Further Apart: Widening Gaps in the Global Recovery

The global economic recovery continues, but with a widening gap between advanced economies and many emerging market and developing economies. Our latest global growth forecast of 6 percent for 2021 is unchanged from the previous outlook, but the composition has changed.

Growth prospects for advanced economies this year have improved by 0.5 percentage point, but this is offset exactly by a downward revision for emerging market and developing economies driven by a significant downgrade for emerging Asia. For 2022, we project global growth of 4.9 percent, up from our previous forecast of 4.4 percent. But again, underlying this is a sizeable upgrade for advanced economies, and a more modest one for emerging market and developing economies.

The Great Divergence: A Fork in the Road for the Global Economy

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on Posted in Africa & World Economy, AgenciesTagged , , , No Comments on The Great Divergence: A Fork in the Road for the Global Economy

As our note to the G20 meeting points out, there is a major risk that as advanced economies and a few emerging markets recover faster, most developing countries will languish for years to come. This would not only worsen the human tragedy of the pandemic, but also the economic suffering of the most vulnerable.

A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on Posted in Africa & World Economy, AgenciesTagged , , , , , , No Comments on A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge

In just three months since we released our last forecast in October, recorded COVID-19 deaths have doubled to over 2 million, as new waves have lifted infections past previous peaks in many countries. In these same three months, multiple vaccines have seen unexpectedly strong success and some countries have started ambitious vaccination drives. Much now depends on the outcome of this race between a mutating virus and vaccines to end the pandemic, and on the ability of policies to provide effective support until that happens. There remains tremendous uncertainty and prospects vary greatly across countries.

Financial Perils in Check for Now, Eyes Turn to Risk of Market Correction

By Aminu MusaPosted on Posted in Africa & World EconomyTagged , , , , , , , No Comments on Financial Perils in Check for Now, Eyes Turn to Risk of Market Correction

Prices for stocks, corporate bonds, and other risk assets have risen higher on the news of vaccine rollouts. Financial markets have shrugged off rising COVID-19 cases, betting that continued policy support will offset any bad economic news in the short term and provide a bridge to the future. As the apparent disconnect between exuberant financial markets and the still-lagging economic recovery persists, it raises the specter of a possible market correction should investors reassess the economic outlook or the extent and duration of policy backstop.

How a Collective Infrastructure Push Will Boost Global Growth

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on Posted in AgenciesTagged , , , , No Comments on How a Collective Infrastructure Push Will Boost Global Growth

With vaccines around the corner, there is increased hope that the pandemic could soon be under better control. That said, the need for cooperative efforts to work toward a better future has never been greater. Priority areas relate to the need to produce and distribute vaccines globally, tackle climate change, and bolster the economic recovery from the crisis.

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