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The Great Divergence: A Fork in the Road for the Global Economy
As our note to the G20 meeting points out, there is a major risk that as advanced economies and a few emerging markets recover faster, most developing countries will languish for years to…
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Structural Factors and Central Bank Credibility Limit Inflation Risks
After ending last year with unexpectedly strong vaccine success and hope that the pandemic and economic distress it caused would recede, we woke up to the reality of new virus variants and the…
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When it Comes to Services vs. Manufacturing, Words Matter
Efforts to revive national manufacturing sectors get a lot of airtime. After all, the sector propelled many East and South-East Asian economies—the so-called “East Asia Miracle”—and was a gateway to the middle class…
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Is It Time To Tax Stock Trading?
In the economist's utopian vision of the stock market, clearheaded investors diligently evaluate companies and invest only in the ones they expect to grow and thrive. In the process, investors direct resources where…
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How Poverty Makes Workers Less Productive
Obviously, giving more money to people without much money helps them with money problems. But this study adds to a growing body of research that says that money really does help workers earn…
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A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge
In just three months since we released our last forecast in October, recorded COVID-19 deaths have doubled to over 2 million, as new waves have lifted infections past previous peaks in many countries.…
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What the Continued Global Uncertainty Means for You,
Global uncertainty reached unprecedented levels at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and remains elevated. The World Uncertainty Index—a quarterly measure of global economic and policy uncertainty covering 143 countries—shows that although uncertainty…
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What 1919 Teaches Us About Pent-Up Demand
1918 should have been a great year for baseball. A young left-handed pitcher named Babe Ruth began the year by pitching an opening-day victory for the Boston Red Sox. Shortly after, Ruth lobbied…
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How To Make A New Year’s Resolution
2020 has been a disaster for meeting new people, which is why Per Carlbring's New Year's resolution is to spend next year trying to connect with someone new every day. Carlbring, a professor…
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Global Policy Responses to Capital Flow Volatility
The COVID-19 health and economic crisis has once again focused attention on the fickleness of capital flows and the need to have an adequate policy toolkit to manage the risks that stem from…
