Agencies

US Dollar Share of Global Foreign Exchange Reserves Drops to 25-Year Low

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on May 15, 2021Posted in Africa & World Economy, AgenciesTagged Central Banks, Currencies, Exchange Rate, Foreign Exchange Reserves, US DollarNo Comments

The share of US dollar reserves held by central banks fell to 59 percent—its lowest level in 25 years—during the fourth quarter of 2020, according to the IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) survey. Some analysts say this partly reflects the declining role of the US dollar in the global economy, in the face of competition from other currencies used by central banks for international transactions. If the shifts in central bank reserves are large enough, they can affect currency and bond markets.

The Great Divergence: A Fork in the Road for the Global Economy

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on February 25, 2021Posted in Africa & World Economy, AgenciesTagged Emerging developing countries, G20 economies, Per capita income, VaccinesNo Comments

As our note to the G20 meeting points out, there is a major risk that as advanced economies and a few emerging markets recover faster, most developing countries will languish for years to come. This would not only worsen the human tragedy of the pandemic, but also the economic suffering of the most vulnerable.

Structural Factors and Central Bank Credibility Limit Inflation Risks

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on February 20, 2021Posted in Africa & World Economy, AgenciesTagged Globalization, Inflation, Structural Factor, VaccineNo Comments

After ending last year with unexpectedly strong vaccine success and hope that the pandemic and economic distress it caused would recede, we woke up to the reality of new virus variants and the unpredictable, winding road that it can lead the world down.

When it Comes to Services vs. Manufacturing, Words Matter

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on February 17, 2021Posted in Africa & World Economy, AgenciesTagged Industrial sector, Manufacturing Sector, ServicesNo Comments

Efforts to revive national manufacturing sectors get a lot of airtime. After all, the sector propelled many East and South-East Asian economies—the so-called “East Asia Miracle”—and was a gateway to the middle class for millions of workers. However, for all the obsession with manufacturing, economists for their part seem to be more preoccupied with services.

Is It Time To Tax Stock Trading?

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on February 10, 2021Posted in Africa & World Economy, AgenciesTagged Financial transaction tax, Stock, Stock Market, taxNo Comments

In the economist’s utopian vision of the stock market, clearheaded investors diligently evaluate companies and invest only in the ones they expect to grow and thrive. In the process, investors direct resources where they’ll be most productive, benefiting the overall economy.

How Poverty Makes Workers Less Productive

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on February 4, 2021Posted in AgenciesTagged PovertyNo Comments

Obviously, giving more money to people without much money helps them with money problems. But this study adds to a growing body of research that says that money really does help workers earn more money.

A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on January 28, 2021Posted in Africa & World Economy, AgenciesTagged COVAX, COVID-19, Pre-COVID, RECOVERIES, Uncertainty, Vaccines, VirusNo Comments

In just three months since we released our last forecast in October, recorded COVID-19 deaths have doubled to over 2 million, as new waves have lifted infections past previous peaks in many countries. In these same three months, multiple vaccines have seen unexpectedly strong success and some countries have started ambitious vaccination drives. Much now depends on the outcome of this race between a mutating virus and vaccines to end the pandemic, and on the ability of policies to provide effective support until that happens. There remains tremendous uncertainty and prospects vary greatly across countries.

What the Continued Global Uncertainty Means for You,

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on January 23, 2021Posted in Africa & World Economy, AgenciesTagged Global Uncertainty, Uncertainty Spillovers, World Uncertainty IndexNo Comments

Global uncertainty reached unprecedented levels at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and remains elevated. The World Uncertainty Index—a quarterly measure of global economic and policy uncertainty covering 143 countries—shows that although uncertainty has come down by about 60 percent from the peak observed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, it remains about 50 percent above its historical average during the 1996–2010 period.

What 1919 Teaches Us About Pent-Up Demand

By Aminu MusaPosted on January 12, 2021Posted in AgenciesTagged 1919, 2021, COVID-19, demand, Pandemic, warNo Comments

1918 should have been a great year for baseball. A young left-handed pitcher named Babe Ruth began the year by pitching an opening-day victory for the Boston Red Sox. Shortly after, Ruth lobbied the team’s manager to let him play other positions so he could spend more time at the plate. The strategy paid off, and Ruth began his run as a home-run-hitting superstar, helping lead the Red Sox to the World Series.

How To Make A New Year’s Resolution

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on December 30, 2020Posted in AgenciesTagged 2020, 2021, Fresh start effect, New year, New Year's ResolutionNo Comments

2020 has been a disaster for meeting new people, which is why Per Carlbring’s New Year’s resolution is to spend next year trying to connect with someone new every day. Carlbring, a professor who heads Stockholm University’s Department of Psychology, knows a thing or two about making a New Year’s resolution stick. He and his colleagues recently published a peer-reviewed study on the topic.