Nigeria: A Frail Giant?

Since President Muhammadu Buhari’s re-election in 2019, the country has faced a myriad of social and economic challenges. Inflation had surged from 11.40% in May 2019 to 17.33% last month; the Naira has been devalued three times, losing 33% of its value, insecurity has increased, and the general investment climate has waned. All these have happened while Nigerians have not seen any meaningful increase in their economic welfare: the country slumped into a second recession in five years. Many states have found it challenging to implement the new minimum wage signed into law in 2019. We also note that even if all the states had implemented the new minimum wage, the total number of civil servants to the entire labour force is considerably low. To sum it, you would still be worse off if you hold 2X the same Naira note you had in 2010 today.

The Unholy Union Between the Naira and Devaluation

In 2020, the Naira lost 25% and 27% of its value at the NAFEX and parallel exchanges, respectively. This quickly disrupted my plans, as I had planned to upskill and purchase some courses priced in dollars at the onset of the year. My disappointment prompted me to visit the CBN’s website in search of its policy stance per the Naira. The website says the apex bank’s exchange rate policy is managed floating – a market-friendly term adopted by developing countries who operate some form of pegged regime. I murmured, why did the Naira not appreciate, and why is it always under severe downward pressure?

Why the Central Bank of Nigeria will Devalue the Currency in 2020

With the Coronavirus outbreak having its toll on business and economic activities, recently released trade figures as well as policies not having their desired effects, we believe that there will be an unexpected naira devaluation in 2020. This is why we explained our reasons in this article.

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