How COVID-19 will Increase Inequality in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Despite the pre-pandemic gains in poverty reduction and lifespans, many of the EMDEs have struggled to reduce income inequality. At the same time, they saw persistently high shares of inactive youth (i.e., not in employment, education, or training), wide inequality in education, and large gaps remaining in economic opportunities for women. COVID-19 is expected to make inequality even worse than past crises since measures to contain the pandemic have had disproportionate effects on vulnerable workers and women.

Fiscal Policy for an Unprecedented Crisis

The COVID-19 crisis has devastated people’s lives, jobs, and businesses. Governments have taken forceful measures to cushion the blow, totaling a staggering $12 trillion globally. These lifelines have saved lives and livelihoods. But they are costly and, together with sharp falls in tax revenues owing to the recession, they have pushed global public debt to an all-time high of close to 100 percent of GDP.

A Long, Uneven and Uncertain Ascent

This crisis is far from over. Employment remains well below pre-pandemic levels and the labor market has become more polarized with low-income workers, youth, and women being harder hit. The poor are getting poorer with close to 90 million people expected to fall into extreme deprivation this year. The ascent out of this calamity is likely to be long, uneven, and highly uncertain. It is essential that fiscal and monetary policy support are not prematurely withdrawn, as best possible.

Mission Impossible? Can Fragile States Increase Tax Revenues?

The COVID-19 shocks are proving to be especially challenging for fragile states. Pre-COVID, fiscal revenues were low in such countries and governments were struggling to raise them. Now, COVID-19 is hitting them hard and fiscal revenues are falling. Once the pandemic abates, restoring and further enhancing tax collection is even more important to secure debt sustainability, facilitate the post-COVID-19 recovery, and meet development financing needs in order to meet the Sustainable Development Goals.

China and the Burgeoning African Debt Crisis

Contrary to the swirling rumors on African social media and in the local press about the supposed imminent danger of Chinese asset seizures in Zambia, it’s not the Chinese that are the problem here… it’s bondholders on Wall Street and in The City.

Trade as a Tool for an Efficient Recovery

As economies now look for paths to recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, new evidence reaffirms that policies for more open and trade-integrated economies could significantly benefit domestic competition and ultimately may help lower costs for consumers in emerging and developing economies.

Charting a Path for a Resilient Recovery in Sub Saharan Africa

As we all continue to grapple with the COVID‑19 crisis, policymakers also need to look ahead. Countries need to ensure that the vast global fiscal support deployed to fight the pandemic also works to build a smarter, greener and more equitable future.
Nowhere is that more important than in sub‑Saharan Africa. It is where the needs are greatest and also home to the world’s youngest population, creating added urgency to act now to build forward better. Together, we need to chart a path to a more resilient recovery.

How Strong Infrastructure Governance Can End Waste in Public Investment

COVID-19 has had a profound impact on people, firms, and economies all over the world. While countries have ramped public lifelines;to individuals and firms they will face enormous challenges to recover from the pandemic, amidst low economic activity and unprecedented levels of debts.Public infrastructure investment will play a key role in the recovery But with resources tight, governments need to spend taxpayer money wisely on the right projects. For this, countries need good infrastructure governance—strong institutions and frameworks to plan, allocate, and implement quality public infrastructure.

Analysis of Nigeria’s Fiscal Revenue from January to April 2020

₦1.25 trillion was expected to be generated in January and February, however, ₦952.5 billion and ₦845.1 billion was generated respectively implying that only 76% and 68% of expected revenue were achieved.
The month (March) which ushered in the Great Lockdown, saw a steep decline in revenue by 14% to ₦729.64 billion (M-o-M) compared to ₦1.32 trillion expected to be collected showing underperformance of 45% revenue collection. Mild recovery was experienced in April’s revenue to ₦915.28bn against ₦1.32trillion expected, an improved 70% target revenue generated.

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