Joshua Olorunsaiye, Author at Gifted Analysts

A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on January 28, 2021Posted in Africa & World Economy, AgenciesTagged COVAX, COVID-19, Pre-COVID, RECOVERIES, Uncertainty, Vaccines, VirusNo Comments

In just three months since we released our last forecast in October, recorded COVID-19 deaths have doubled to over 2 million, as new waves have lifted infections past previous peaks in many countries. In these same three months, multiple vaccines have seen unexpectedly strong success and some countries have started ambitious vaccination drives. Much now depends on the outcome of this race between a mutating virus and vaccines to end the pandemic, and on the ability of policies to provide effective support until that happens. There remains tremendous uncertainty and prospects vary greatly across countries.

What the Continued Global Uncertainty Means for You,

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on January 23, 2021Posted in Africa & World Economy, AgenciesTagged Global Uncertainty, Uncertainty Spillovers, World Uncertainty IndexNo Comments

Global uncertainty reached unprecedented levels at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and remains elevated. The World Uncertainty Index—a quarterly measure of global economic and policy uncertainty covering 143 countries—shows that although uncertainty has come down by about 60 percent from the peak observed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, it remains about 50 percent above its historical average during the 1996–2010 period.

How To Make A New Year’s Resolution

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on December 30, 2020Posted in AgenciesTagged 2020, 2021, Fresh start effect, New year, New Year's ResolutionNo Comments

2020 has been a disaster for meeting new people, which is why Per Carlbring’s New Year’s resolution is to spend next year trying to connect with someone new every day. Carlbring, a professor who heads Stockholm University’s Department of Psychology, knows a thing or two about making a New Year’s resolution stick. He and his colleagues recently published a peer-reviewed study on the topic.

Global Policy Responses to Capital Flow Volatility

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on December 30, 2020Posted in AgenciesTagged Capital Flows, Capital outflow, Global Financial cycleNo Comments

The COVID-19 health and economic crisis has once again focused attention on the fickleness of capital flows and the need to have an adequate policy toolkit to manage the risks that stem from these flows, while maximizing their benefits.

A Greener Future Begins with a Shift to Coal Alternatives

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on December 16, 2020Posted in AgenciesTagged Coal, Green investment, Natural gas, Nuclear energy, Renewable energyNo Comments

Demand for coal remains strong and helps to fuel economic development in emerging markets. Yet many countries, seeking a more sustainable future, have been taking steps to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels, especially coal. Obstacles to their efforts have proven difficult to overcome, not least because people who work in the coal industry depend on it for their livelihoods—but the right policy levers can help.

When Inequality is High, Pandemics Can Fuel Social Unrest

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on December 15, 2020Posted in Africa & World Economy, AgenciesTagged Inequality, Pandemic, Social unrest, Vicious cycleNo Comments

In the months and years following previous pandemics, the countries most affected saw a rise in social unrest. Based on this historical trend, the COVID-19 pandemic could pose a threat to the social fabric in many countries, but these trends do not pre-determine an outcome.

How a Collective Infrastructure Push Will Boost Global Growth

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on November 30, 2020Posted in AgenciesTagged Collective Infrastructure, G20 Leader, Global Growth, Infrastructure investment, VaccinesNo Comments

With vaccines around the corner, there is increased hope that the pandemic could soon be under better control. That said, the need for cooperative efforts to work toward a better future has never been greater. Priority areas relate to the need to produce and distribute vaccines globally, tackle climate change, and bolster the economic recovery from the crisis.

Time is Ripe for Innovation in the World of Sovereign Debt Restructuring

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on November 29, 2020Posted in AgenciesTagged COVID-19, Debt, Debt instruments, Debt Restructuring, Sovereign debt restructuringNo Comments

When corporations have too much debt and need to restructure it, creditors often end up exchanging bonds or loans for stocks. They trade the guaranteed payout of a fixed-income investment for an equity position whose return depends on the company’s future results. In other words, investors accept to share risk. Could a similar mechanism be applied when a sovereign nation has to restructure its debt, tying payouts to its future economic performance?

Continued Strong Policy Action to Combat Uncertainty

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on November 28, 2020Posted in AgenciesTagged COVID-19, Debt Service, employment, Global GDP contraction, Unemployment, Vaccine developmentNo Comments

As G20 leaders meet virtually this week, the global economy faces a critical juncture. Countries have started to climb back from the depths of the COVID-19 crisis. But the resurgence in infections in many economies shows just how difficult and uncertain this ascent will be.

Biden vs. Biden on China

By Joshua OlorunsaiyePosted on November 24, 2020Posted in Africa & World EconomyTagged Biden, China, Trump, United StatesNo Comments

If Biden talked about China in 2020 like he did back in 2000, he might have lost the election. Three-quarters of Americans now have an unfavorable view of the country — up from about a third in the early 2000s. China, which has an economy 12 times larger than it was in 2000, is now a boogeyman. Trade with China may have slashed costs for American consumers and created countless new jobs in various sectors, but — as organized labor warned back in 2000 — it also destroyed huge numbers of blue-collar jobs.

Author: Joshua Olorunsaiye